Monday, March 04, 2024

Russia-Ukraine Conflict- The Consequences (Part Three & Part Four)

 Russia-Ukraine Conflict- The Consequences (Part Three)

It is not just NATO nations who want Ukraine to fight to its last man as NATO is using Ukraine as its Private Military Contractor. While only 2% of the elected officials in Kyiv Parliament belong to Far Right parties, a significant minority if not the majority of Ukrainians in Western and even Northern Ukraine harbor strong anti-Russian sentiments. So many Ukrainians would "cut their own throat" than meekly surrender to the Russians.
They have utmost contempt for the "Bolshevik hordes" from the East. The Azov Battalion (militia), the Armed Forces Of Ukraine, the Ukraine's secret police (SBU), and its regular police force in those regions in Ukraine strongly reflect this.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict- The Consequences (Part Four)
As Ukraine continues to protract this "war" with Russia, it will do so at its own peril. Ukraine has at least 300,000 soldiers who will never be able to contribute to the war effort again. That is well over 40% of its total military. More importantly the majority of their highly competent professional soldiers have been totally depleted. This means even if NATO continues to send to Ukraine much more sophisticated military equipment, Ukraine will not have the sufficient staff to operate all of this.

Russia has nearly 200,000 soldiers who will never be able to fight for it again. However their military is stronger than it has ever been in terms of equipment (quantity and quality) and in terms of troop numbers. In the last two years, Russia has only spent 30% of its government budget on defense while Ukraine's gross national product is far less than one half of what it was prior to the Russian invasion. As Ukraine will sooner or later collapse at the pace of fighting, Russia will change its objectives for the third time to achieve the following.
1. De-militarization of all of Ukraine and not just de-militarization of Ukraine of its NATO military presence.
2. De-nazification of all of Ukraine and not just de-nazification of the Donbas.
3. Takeover of most of the Kharkiv Oblast (state) to "liberate" the ethnic Russians as they did claim to have done in the Donbas. Many ethnic Russians in the Kharkiv Oblast, according to Russia, have complained about discrimination meted out to them by the Ukrainian government.
4. Extending the land bridge through the Mykolaiv Oblast to the Odesa Oblast. This would landlock Ukraine as it would totally cut of its access to the Black Sea.
5. The foregoing will cause Russia to state its new objective: the removal of the current Western Powers-controlled Kyiv regime.

Ukraine will collapse by next year if they continue to fight Russia in the attempts of taking over the territory that Russia annexed at its territory 1.5 years ago. When it does, Russia may have to go into the interior of Ukraine to stave off collapse of the Ukrainian people. Poland and Romanian may have to do the same in Western Ukraine. Once everything is stabilised in Ukraine, no one should be surprised if Poland and Romania also slice off chunks of Ukrainian territory for themselves.
May be an image of map and text

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